Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Putin's regime is starting to lose legitimacy among its core voters, particularly in large cities

YESTERDAY'S parliamentary poll in Russia was always going to be more a referendum on Vladimir Putin and the ruling United Russia party than a real election. The genuine opposition was barred from taking part long before polling day; television, which remains the main source of news and views for most of the country, has been working at full propaganda throttle; and governors and mayors across Russia were given specific targets for United Russia's voting figures and told to meet them.

Yet United Russia won just under 50% of the vote, down from 64% in 2007. It will enjoy a simple majority in parliament but no longer the two-thirds it needs to alter the constitution. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, who was placed at the top of United Russia's electoral list, tried to put a brave face on the result. Boris Gryzlov, the speaker of parliament and United Russia's chairman, argued that the party put in a strong performance compared with other European ruling parties.

That smacked of desperation, given that Russia's voting procedure bears little resemblance to genuine elections. Most analysts say that the real lesson of yesterday's poll is that Mr Putin's regime is starting to lose legitimacy among its core voters, particularly in large cities. 

This explains the Kremlin's hysterical behaviour towards election monitors. The most important of these, Golos (Voice, or Vote), was harassed and smeared by one of Russia's main television channels after Mr Putin likened its observers, who receive foreign grants, to Judas. What irritated the authorities most, however, was an interactive map created by Golos that allowed people across Russia to report election abuses. On Saturday this earned Golos a $1,000 fine from a Moscow court. 

Yesterday various websites, including Golos's and that of LiveJournal, a popular social network, were brought down by massive cyber-attacks. Some were brought back online after polling closed; others remain down. But the authorities could do little to stop videos of ballot-box stuffing being posted on YouTube and Facebook.

The irony is that United Russia could probably have won 45% of the vote anyway (although not in Moscow and St Petersburg). Opinion pollsters say that across the country this kind of rigging rarely changes the outcome by much more than 5%. 


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