Roland Burris is very likely to be a U.S. Senator until the Illinois Legislature can hold a special election to replace him, which they may now decide to do quickly. It's clear that if Burris were elected and duly qualified, the Senate couldn't refuse to seat him. That's the Supreme Court's holding in the Adam Clayton Powell case, Powell v. McCormack (1969). The question is whether there is a different rule for appointments by governors rather than elections. Those are covered by the Seventeenth Amendment, which lets states give the appointment power to governors "until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct."
But what if Blago gave the seat to someone who bribed him? The Senate could probably refuse to seat that person as not genuinely fulfilling the "qualifications" of the seat (which it gets to decide under Article I of the Constitution) because the appointment would be unlawful under other provisions of federal and state law (due to the bribery) and therefore not a valid exercise of the appointment power under state law. But there presumably was no bribe with respect to the Burris appointment, which means that he gets the seat.
The Senate's remaining option would be to seat Burris but then turn around an expel him by a 2/3 vote (another power under Article I). But that would open up another can of worms because Burris will not have engaged in misbehavior and it would be an obvious attempt to circumvent his right under the Constitution to be seated.
Burris is on TV saying he had no idea that he gave $14,000 to Blago.
Lesson learned by Illinois legislature: you snooze, you lose.
Update: Illinois' Secretary of State Jesse White will refuse to certify the Burris appointment.
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