The consumer spending component of the economy was 70% of GDP, but it is shrinking fast and it will not come back to former levels for a long time -- maybe ever.
Unemployment and fear of unemployment are killing spending. I believe we will see double-digit unemployment before we see 5% again.
Another drag on spending is a lack of credit, as credit cards get pulled back, home-equity lines are withdrawn and people realize that buying the next piece of breakable stuff made in China may not be the wisest thing to do with their money right now.
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