Translating Yesterday's Results from think progress.org

In the run up to yesterday's off-year elections, conservatives sought to cast the high-profile contests as a referendum on President Obama's first year in office. "These are bellwether races -- not just as a referendum on this administration, but on our party as well," said Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele. "So is this really a referendum on Obama, or is this just the political tide changing?" Fox News' Sean Hannity asked former Bush adviser Karl Rove. "Well, I think it's both," replied Rove. Despite the fact that Obama's party lost control of the governor's mansions in both Virginia and New Jersey, claims of a referendum do not pan out. While the two governorships have gone to the party not in control of the White House in every election since 1989, the results have not correlated with presidential approval, indicating that they are not a referendum on presidential leadership. "The Democratic losses of these two governorships should not be interpreted as a significant blow to President Obama," writes CNN Political Editor Mark Preston, noting that 56 percent of Virginians said in exit polls that the President was not a factor in their vote, while 60 percent of New Jersey voters said the same. In fact, "just under half the voters in Virginia, 48 percent, approved of the way Obama is handling his job, rising to 57 percent in New Jersey." Additionally, Democrat Bill Owens' victory over Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district -- where Hoffman's third-party candidacy became the vessel for a Republican Party civil war -- dealt "a major setback to conservative organizations." Still, while yesterday's election was not a referendum on the President, the tea leaves do highlight challenges for the administration going forward as "a vast 89 percent in New Jersey and 85 percent in Virginia said they were worried about the direction of the nation's economy in the next year."

NEW JERSEY AND VIRGINIA: In both Virginia and New Jersey, voters ranked the economy as their top issue of concern. Voters who focused on the economy favored Republican Bob McDonnell over Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds by an 18-point margin. In contrast, defeated New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) "won economy voters by a broad margin" over Republican Chris Christie. Local issues were paramount in both races. But as Newsweek's Howard Fineman said on MSNBC last night, the real story of the gubernatorial elections may be how the face of the electorate changed from 2008 to 2009. "This was a revolution in reverse, or a rebellion reverse in the sense that it was as much about people who didn't turn out in Virginia and maybe as much about people who don't turn out in New Jersey," said Fineman. "The Obama supporters didn't show up in anywhere near the numbers they did." Indeed, as Politico's Ben Smith pointed out, "this wasn't your president's electorate." In 2008, young voters were 21 percent of Virginia's electorate while yesterday, just 10 percent of voters were under the age of 30. Though youth turnout is always down in off-year elections, the fact that Virginia state senator Creigh Deeds ran away from core progressive priorities might explain why there was such a huge drop off, considering that the so-called "millennial generation" is strongly progressive. Deeds ran against transitioning to a clean energy economy and dithered on the public option for health care reform.

NEW YORK AND CALIFORNIA: While conservative politicians found success in statewide Virginia and New Jersey contests yesterday, the special congressional elections in New York's 23rd district and California's 10th district told very different tales. Hoffman's four-point loss to Owens in upstate New York marks the first time in a century that the seat will not be held by a Republican -- and it's "a setback for national conservatives who heavily promoted" his campaign. Hoffman, who considers Glenn Beck to be a "mentor," became a hero to grassroots conservatives when he mounted a third-party campaign against Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava. Tea Party activists and special interest groups like the Club for Growth declared Scozzafava too liberal because she supports "gay rights and abortion rights and had embraced some Democratic economic policies like the federal stimulus package." Over the weekend, Scozzafava dropped out of the race and endorsed Owens, saying that he "understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first." Hoffman, who lives outside the district, "didn't even try to pretend that the election was about the issues of the district," instead trying to make it about proving the power of the Tea Parties and Glenn Beck's 9/12 project. While the national media focused on NY-23, they largely ignored the evidence of a progressive resurgence in CA-10. California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi resoundingly won the contest to fill Blue Dog Democrat Ellen Tauscher's vacant seat. Garamendi is an unabashed liberal. He is a strong supporter not only of a public option, but of a single-payer Medicare-for-all health care system, supports the creation of an exit strategy from Afghanistan, and actually defeated Tauscher's hand-picked candidate for the Democratic endorsement.

DOWN THE BALLOT: In Maine last night, same-sex marriage advocates were handed a disappointing defeat as voters "repealed the state's same sex marriage law after an emotionally charged campaign that drew large numbers to the polls." "Gay-rights activists had hoped Maine voters -- known for their moderate, independent-minded views -- would have been the first to endorse same-sex marriage in a statewide ballot," but with 87 percent of precincts reporting as of 2 a.m. last night, "gay marriage opponents claimed 53 percent of the vote to supporters' 47 percent." Election day news wasn't all bad news, however, for the gay rights movement. Politico's Ben Smith notes that "a lesbian candidate for Houston mayor whose campaign had become a cause celebre in the gay community, Annise Parker, won a surprising plurality and takes a strong hand into the run-off in that city, not generally seen as a gay rights hub. A gay man was also elected mayor of Chapel Hill." Additionally, Detroit elected a gay City Council president. In Washington state, voters narrowly approved Referendum 71 granting "registered domestic partners additional state-granted rights currently given only to married couples."

RADICAL RIGHT -- ARMEY TO MEET WITH AUTHOR OF TOWN HALL HARASSMENT MEMO TO PLAN PURGE OF MODERATES FROM THE GOP: The Hartford Courant reported Tuesday that former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, chairman of FreedomWorks and chief astroturf organizer, is planning to travel to Fairfield, CT on Nov. 11 for a "strategy session" with conservative activists, including Bob MacGuffie, the original author of the infamous town hall harassment strategy memo. Armey will be discussing how to scale-up the purging of moderates from the GOP, a strategy that created a national sensation in New York's 23rd congressional district. As The Progress Report first reported in late July, MacGuffie authored the now infamous memo detailing how conservative activists can successfully disrupt Democratic health care town halls. The memo was distributed through a listserv controlled by FreedomWorks, the corporate front group which organized the tea party movement earlier this year. In town hall after town hall this August, MacGuffie's strategy was used to target members of Congress who were considering supporting health care reform. Although Armey disputed his relation to the memo, both Rolling Stone and Talking Points Memo have verified that FreedomWorks staffers, like FreedomWorks Florida coordinator Tom Gaitens, control the Tea Party Patriots listserv that distributed the memo. Armey has gone so far as denying even knowing Gaitens, even though he has worked for FreedomWorks for years and can be seen in the last 10 seconds of this ABC News segment handing a microphone to Armey. Both MacGuffie and Armey are targeting Republican candidates like Sens. Lindsey Graham (SC) and Olympia Snowe (ME), Reps. Bob Inglis (SC) and Mark Kirk (IL), Gov. Charlie Crist (FL), and other Republicans who have strayed from rigid party-line positions.