A new analysis by the election forecaster FiveThirtyEight found that a record number of women are projected to be elected to Congress in the midterm election cycle appropriately dubbed "The Year of the Woman."
Poll whisperer Nate Silver's model gives Democrats an 84 percent change of flipping the House this year, with many of those gains coming thanks to women candidates. According to the models, a record 124 women may win their elections this cycle, compared to the 107 women elected to Congress this session. As many as 100 women lead their House races, along with 24 female Senate candidates, out of 238 women running for federal office. There are currently 84 women in the House and 23 in the Senate.
FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich warns that these candidates hold solid leads and have strong chances to win, but the gains are far from guaranteed. At the same time, it's also true women's gains could be even greater.
"For example, say we limit our forecast data to women with 3 in 4 chances of winning or better; there would be only 115 women in the next Congress," he wrote. "On the other hand," he added, "let's assume that every woman with at least a 1 in 4 chance ends up prevailing. In this more optimistic scenario for women, there could be 120 congresswomen and 26 female senators on Jan. 3, 2019. That total of 146 women would be a 36 percent increase over the current number."
No comments:
Post a Comment