Analyzing President Obama's state of the union address

President Obama delivered the first state of the union address of his presidency, a 71-minute speech that ranked as the sixth longest in presidential history. (The famously long-winded Bill Clinton has four of the five longest speeches.) The White House posted its version of the highlights from the speech and you can read the whole thing for yourself; Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell delivered a solid if not spectacular Republican response that will likely cement his status as a rising star within the party. The gaffe of the night? That came from Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito who mouthed the words "not true" when the president condemned the recent Citizens United ruling. We posted our first thoughts on the speech last night. Here's a quick summary: 1) Values matter: From the start of the speech to its ends, the common thread was an appeal to the country's shared values of what it means to be an American. 2) Health care humility: Obama waited more than thirty minutes before raising the touchy topic of health care. But, when he did, he talked about it in a self-deprecating tone aimed at defusing some of the vitriol surrounding the issue: "By now it should be fairly obvious I didn't take on health care because it was good politics," Obama said in a line that drew chuckles in the chamber. 3) Blaming Bush: On at least three occasions, Obama referenced the previous administration to explain the problems left to him and the country. After rattling off a list of spending and tax cuts by former president George W. Bush, Obama exclaimed: "All of this is before I walked in the door."

2. In the midst of the state of the union madness came an absolutely fascinating national survey conducted by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican pollster Glen Bolger for National Public Radio. The entire poll is well worth checking out but since you're probably getting over your SOTU hangover -- is that a thing? -- here's five key data points from the survey: 1) Republicans lead on the generic ballot question -- which party's candidate would you vote for if the election were held today? -- 44 percent to 39 percent, an improvement from the statistical tie (43 percent R, 42 percent D) in a July 2009 NPR poll. (Check out Bolger's blog post on the generic ballot findings and what they mean.) 2) Nearly six in ten adults (58 percent) blame former president George W. Bush for the "current state of the economy" while just 33 percent blame President Obama. 3) A huge majority of those polled -- 70 percent -- said a "jobs bill" should be either the first or second priority of the administration moving forward. That number crushed a focus on a deficit reduction plan (49 percent) or on a financial regulation bill (34 percent). Interestingly, health care was not offered by the pollsters as an option for the administration to focus on moving forward. 4) The country is deeply divided over whether the change Obama is bringing is good or bad. Fifty percent call it "the right change" while 46 percent call it the "wrong change." 5) Speaking of divided, 49 percent approve of the job Obama is doing whle 48 percent disapprove. There is no such uncertainty of public opinion about Congress; 28 percent approve of how Congress is doing its job while 67 percent disapprove. ALSO READ: Greenberg's analysis of the numbers.

3. Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) appears to be in genuine jeopardy of falling in next Tuesday's Democratic primary at the hands of state Comptroller Dan Hynes, a loss that would reinforce the anti-incumbent bent of the American electorate. A recent Chicago Tribune poll showed Quinn, who took over from disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), leading Hynes by just four points -- a rapid erosion for the incumbent in less than two months time. In a conference call with reporters Wednesday, Hynes campaign manager Mike Rendina claimed that "every minute we are gaining support across the state." Hynes pollster Jef Pollock argued that Quinn was simply unelectable in a general election and comparing him to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) who lost his reelection bid after months (and months) of polling showed the incumbent in the low 40/high 30s in ballot tests. "Quinn is in a far worse situation than Jon Corzine," added Pollock. While a loss by Quinn would almost certainly become part of a broader national narrative for voters' rejection of their elected officials, the Illinois race has some unique traits that make it somewhat difficult to draw lessons from. First, there is the Blagojevich factor. Blagojevich's downfall has become the stuff of parody but it has left a lasting scar in the minds of Illinois voters that Quinn, despite being no friend of Blago, has struggled to overcome. Second, the accidental release of hundreds of prisoners by Quinn's Administration has handed Hynes a potent issue by which to paint the incumbent as out of touch. Still, a sitting governor -- even an appointed one -- is a big deal. And Hynes is now well within striking distance.

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