Arizona's D-Day FROM THINK PROGRESS

Arizona's D-Day

Ninety days after it was signed into law, Arizona's new immigration law -- SB-1070 -- is set to take effect tomorrow. U.S. Ninth District Judge Susan Bolton is currently considering some of the seven lawsuits brought against the law along with a request by federal government that she approve a federal injunction of the law. Last night, Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) announced that she expects a ruling within 24 hours. Much is at stake. As one law professor pointed out, if the law is struck down, it will take the "wind out of the sails" of local efforts to pass immigration laws. If it isn't, Bolton's decision will "unleash more copycat legislation." Both sides are bracing themselves for implementation. National and local organizations are preparing a state-wide demonstration that will kick off today with a vigil in several cities. Demonstrators are set to descend on the Arizona state capital without their papers and "dare law enforcement in Phoenix, Arizona, to put SB-1070 to the test." The U.S. attorney for Arizona is encouraging those who believe their civil rights have been violated to contact the FBI. Meanwhile, Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio is "setting aside space" in his tent city for more undocumented immigrants as local law enforcement gears up to enforce SB-1070. And while most Americans support Arizona's immigration law, they also think its looming implementation tomorrow will "increase discrimination against Hispanics while not necessarily making a dent in the [immigration] problem."

LEGAL BRAWL: Beginning a couple weeks ago, Bolton started hearing arguments filed by the U.S. Department of Justice, civil rights organizations, clergy groups, a researcher, and a Tucson police officer over whether Arizona's new immigration law should take effect. University of Arizona law professor Jack Chin explains that Bolton will have to weigh the likelihood of success of the lawsuits challenging the law, judge who will suffer "irreparable harm," and look at the "balance of hardships." Bolton has the options of issuing a temporary injunction, blocking parts of the law, or doing nothing. So far, Bolton has dropped only a few hints as to how she will rule. During the hearings, she suggested that the part of Arizona's law that requires immigrant residents to carry immigration documents "may not pass constitutional muster." After challenging her assessment, the defense conceded, stating, "I didn't have the feeling I persuaded you last week either." Bolton also questioned a sentence in SB-1070 that requires police to verify the immigration status of arrested inmates before releasing them along with a separate part of the law that allows police to arrest anyone they believe has committed a crime that would make them removable from the country. However, Bolton did make one thing clear: she will not invalidate the whole law, but may halt the enactment of a handful of its sections. SB-1070 supporters are fighting back. Attorneys for the Arizona governor asked a federal judge to dismiss the Justice Department's lawsuit, insisting that the federal government's claim is based on "hypothetical scenarios." Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu and Cochise County Sheriff Larry Dever have also hired lawyers to fight lawsuits against SB-1070 and pursue countersuits against the Obama administration.

WINNERS AND LOSERS: As the SB-1070 legal battle rages on, a growing list of stakeholders is taking shape. A local Arizona TV news station recently discovered that "two of Brewer's top advisers have connections" to private prison giant Corrections Corporation of America (CCA). Paul Senseman, Brewer's deputy chief of staff, is a former lobbyist for CCA and his wife continues to lobby for the company. Chuck Coughlin, who leads her re-election campaign, chaired her transition into the governorship, and is one of the governor's policy advisers, also happens to be the president of HighGround Public Affairs Consultants, which lobbies for CCA. Brewer's connections to the CCA are significant because the company currently bills $11 million a month to the state of Arizona to house immigrant detainees, and if SB-1070 is successfully implemented, its profits would soar as it would take responsibility for imprisoning immigrants arrested by Arizona police. Brewer herself, who has essentially built her campaign around the law, has also benefited from signing off on SB-1070 in terms of her local popularity. So far, Brewer has raised over $1,104,935 just for her legal defense fund. However, Brewer's star may not shine forever. Arizona public schools are experiencing a drop in enrollment which could account for a drop in millions of dollars of federal funding. Arizona's Office of Tourism is reporting a $12 million loss in canceled hotels and reservations. Attendance has also been dropping at several local churches serving largely to Hispanics, and as the Arizona Republic points out, "fewer attendees means less in the collection plate." In the end, embracing the law also carries the risk of permanently alienating the critical Latino vote.

RIPPLE EFFECT: The rest of the Western hemisphere is watching Arizona closely. The Reform Immigration for American campaign reports that "there are twenty two copycats [laws] waiting to see which way the wind blows on states' ability to preempt federal immigration law." In Utah, one state lawmaker is prepared to introduce copycat legislation as early as the second week of August. Gubernatorial candidates in states like Florida, Colorado, and Georgia have made campaign promises to pass similar laws based on the presumption that SB-1070 is constitutional. Meanwhile, tensions on the issue are high. Activists argue that SB-1070 has contributed to a fresh round of discrimination such a surge of hate crimes in Staten Island and the disturbing release of a "witch-hunt" list of the names of 1,300 suspected undocumented immigrants by Utah citizen vigilantes. The white supremacist National Socialist Movement has also entered the debate and will demonstrate in downtown Knoxville next month as a show of support for a tougher state immigration law. On the other side of the border, Latin America is keeping a close watch. Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Peru have all filed motions to join Mexico's legal brief supporting the lawsuits of the U.S. government and advocacy groups. Mexico is additionally preparing for the implementation of Arizona's new immigration law. Expecting a surge of deportees, the Mexican government has also added more workers to its consulate in Phoenix and migrant shelters have added more beds. Mexico's National Human Rights Commission plans on sending inspectors to U.S. border crossings to monitor deportations and ensure deportees are treated properly.
 

ECONOMY -- SINGLE STIMULUS PROGRAM GOP WANTED TO ELIMINATE CREATED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF JOBS: A new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) indicates that the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Emergency Contingency Fund (TANF ECF), which is part of the stimulus package, has created hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country and is on track to help 240,000 unemployed individuals find jobs by the end of September. Interestingly enough, TANF ECF was the first "winner" of the GOP's YouCut, a gimmicky website House Republicans launched in May that allows people to vote on which item, from a pre-determined list, they would eliminate from the federal budget. At the time, several key GOP lawmakers railed against the immensely successful jobs program, which helps families in need and subsidizes job creation, including placing young Americans in summer jobs. In YouCut's online announcement, Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) then said, "I'm so pleased to announce that the first program that got over 275,000 votes to cut, to do away with, is a crazy one that actually incentivizes people not to work. That's right!" Price's state of Georgia, however, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of TANF ECF, where the program has created 20,000 jobs. As CBPP's LaDonna Pavetti pointed out, TANF recipients are "the individuals who are most likely to spend virtually all of the money they earn, thus making this an effective mechanism to stimulate the local economy." Nonetheless, the House GOP feels that this program is the epitome of government waste and needs to be tossed by the wayside. Unfortunately, TANF ECF is running low on funds and will expire at the end of September if Congress doesn't reauthorize it. Already, the Senate has voted down a reauthorization once, even though the program has significant Republican support in the states where it is helping.

The House voted 308-114 yesterday to approve "a major war-funding increase of $33 billion to pay for [President Obama's] surge in Afghanistan." Twelve Republicans and 102 Democrats opposed the measure; last year, "32 Democrats opposed a similar midyear spending bill." The vote came after the leak of classified documents on the Afghanistan war and now heads to President Obama for his signature.

800,000 gallons of oil have spilled "into a creek and flowed into the Kalamazoo River in southern Michigan, coating wildlife," following a leak from a pipeline that goes from Indiana to Ontario, Canada. Rep. Mark Schauer (D-MI) said the spill is a "public health crisis" and plans to hold hearings on the issue.

A new Natural Resources Defense Council report has found that BP's Gulf oil spill has not impacted the vast majority of the area's beaches but is still keeping tourists away. Beach closures have been mainly limited to three areas of Louisiana while "[c]losures or advisories have been issued for 49 of 253 monitored beach sites in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi."

Ignoring a White House veto threat, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee voted to add $450 million to the defense budget for a second engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. Pat Garofalo notes, "Congress' insistence on funding the wasteful program comes at the same time that deficit hysteria is preventing any and all measures to combat the Great Recession from easily moving on Capitol Hill."

Two "leading economists wielding complex quantitative models" say they have "empirically proved" that government economic interventions under Presidents Bush and Obama saved the economy. In a new paper, they argue that without the Wall Street bailout, Federal Reserve lending, and Obama's stimulus package, "the nation's gross domestic product would be about 6.5 percent lower this year."

The new financial regulation law contains a little-noticed provision that "grants the federal government broad new powers to compel financial firms to hire more women and minorities." The precedent-setting diversity promotion effort is "drawing fire from Republicans who say it could lead to de facto hiring quotas."

The Massachusetts Legislature approved a new bill yesterday "to bypass the Electoral College system" and ensure that the president-elect is "determined by the national popular vote." Under the bill, which passed by 28 to 9, all of Massachusetts' 12 electoral votes "would be awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes nationally."

Yesterday, the Senate failed to invoke cloture on the DISCLOSE Act, a campaign finance reform bill that would "require more disclosure of the role of corporations, unions and other special interests in bankrolling political advertisements." With a 57 to 41 vote, Democrats "failed to persuade even one Republican" to get the "60 votes needed to defeat a Republican filibuster."

Democratic senators are downplaying the likelihood of passing legislation that would establish a new bank tax, with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) saying "it's becoming more remote as the session comes to an end." When asked about possible plans to discuss such a tax on his Senate Finance Committee, chairman Max Baucus (D) replied, "Not soon."

And finally: Do Americans miss President Bush? It appears that they don't.