Forget the Senate and House. That's short-term thinking. The real prize in Tuesday's midterm elections is the power to draw congressional seats and determine the country's balance of power for the next decade.
If either party can achieve what politicos call the "trifecta"—control of the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature—in a given state, it will be able to draw congressional districts within that state unencumbered by any need to compromise with the other party. That's the kind of power that creates electoral maps like the one former GOP Majority Leader Tom Delay helped bring to Texas in 2003—a map that pushed four of the state's Democrats out of their seats.
Five states bordering the Great Lakes—Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are the central battleground in the fight to control redistricting. Sure, the Republicans might take back the House of Representatives on election night. But winning gubernatorial and state legislative races in these five states could allow the GOP to dominate the House for much longer than the next few years.
The Republicans now control four of the ten legislative chambers in the five states in question. They also hold the governor's office in Indiana. But after Tuesday's election, Republican governors could be running all five states—and the Dems could easily lose their grip on the six legislative chambers they control today.
That's a prospect that has national Democrats very worried. Carolyn Fiddler, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which aids Dems in state legislative races, says that she's seen maps that corral all of the Democrats in Ohio into just four districts—down from ten current Democratic-leaning districts. (Ohio is also set to lose two representatives in post-Census population adjustments.) GOP redistricters in Pennsylvania could easily cut that state's Dem delegation in half, Fiddler adds. That would mark a dramatic change from the current balance of 12 Dems to seven Republicans. (Pennsylvania is also likely to lose a seat.)
The possibilities for Democrats in Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan look just as bad. Here's a quick breakdown:
Michigan (Set To Lose 1 Seat)
Current Balance of Power: eight Dems, seven Republicans; Democratic Governor, one Democratic chamber
Who Drew the Map Last Time?: Republicans had the trifecta and drew the current map.
What to Watch for on Tuesday: Republican Rick Snyder is an overwhelming favorite to win the governor's race. (The New York Times' polling guru, Nate Silver, gives him a 99 percent chance of winning.) Winning the Michigan House will be a heavy lift for Republicans. But with unemployment in the state at 12.9 percent, anything's possible.
Indiana
Current Balance of Power: five Dems, four Republicans; GOP governor (not up for reelection), one Democratic chamber
Who Drew the Map Last Time?: The bipartisan-drawn Indiana map is widely considered one of the most competitive in the country.
What to Watch For on Tuesday: The Democrats now hold the Indiana House by a four-seat margin.* The state's Republican governor is not up for reelection. If the Dems lose the Indiana House*, you can probably say goodbye to the kind of competitive seats like Indiana's "bloody" eighth and ninth.
rest http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/10/midterm-elections-redistricting-strickland-kasich
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