Demographic Shifts, 2004 to 2008
Where did Obama gain the most relevant to Kerry four years ago? I've seen dozens of theories floating about. but no systematic analysis. Usually, the theories floated are connected to the organization of the person doing the floating. For example, a member of a youth vote coalition will attribute Obama's victory to young voters, a spokesperson for a Lainto coalition will say it was Latino voters, a spokesperson for a women's organization will say it was single women, etc.
My quick reaction to these numbers are that Obama's victory was achieved primarily by non-whites, voters under 45, and what seems to be heavily depressed Republican turnout. Obama's victory among those making over $200K is also shcoking. I'll work on tracking down more numbers later on. What are your thoughts on these figures?
In order to try and provide more than just speculation and organizational trumpeting, in the extended entry I provide a table that shows Obama's shift from 2004 across every major demographic. Check it out.
2004 exit poll
2008 exit poll
Note: "Raw shift" means the change in the overall margin Obama earned from a given demograhpic compared. For example, if Obama won a demographic that makes up 10% of the electorate by a 60%-40% margin, than earned an overall +2.0% margin from that group. If Kerry earned an overall 1.0% margin from that group four years ago, then that group had a "raw shift" of 1.0%
Obama's demographic shift from 2004
| Demographic | Percent Shift | Raw Shift |
|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||
| Women | +10% | +5.3% |
| Men | +12% | +5.5% |
| Ethnicity | ||
| White | +5% | +4.2% |
| Black | +14% | +3.5% |
| Latino | +27% | +2.5% |
| Asian | +15% | +0.3% |
| Other | +21% | +0.4% |
| Age | ||
| 18-29 | +23% | +4.6% |
| 30-44 | +13% | +3.8% |
| 45-64 | NA | +2.7% |
| 65+ | -2% | -0.3% |
| Income | ||
| Under $15K | +21% | +0.7% |
| $15K-$30K | +18% | +1.7% |
| $30K-$50K | +11% | +2.1% |
| $50K-$75K | +12 | +2.8% |
| $75K-100K | +13% | +1.9% |
| $100K-$150K | +11% | +1.2% |
| $150K-$200K | +14% | +0.3% |
| $200K+ | +34% | +1.2% |
| Education | ||
| No HS | +27% | +1.1% |
| HS Grad | +11% | +2.3% |
| Some College | +14% | +2.8% |
| 4 year grad | +8% | +2.1% |
| Post Grad | +7% | +1.3% |
| Party | ||
| Dem | +3% | +2.0% |
| Rep | +6% | +6.3% |
| Ind | +7% | +2.1% |
| Ideology | ||
| Liberal | +7% | +2.3% |
| Moderate | +12% | +5.2% |
| Conservative | +11% | +3.7% |
| Religion | ||
| Protestant | +10% | +5.4% |
| Catholic | +14% | +3.8% |
| Jewish | +8% | -0.4% |
| Other | +10% | Even |
| None | +16% | +2.7% |
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